Mtengo Wama board Otere Wakwera Ndi 50%

Ndi kukula kwa 5G, AI ndi misika yamakompyuta apamwamba kwambiri, kufunikira kwa onyamula IC, makamaka onyamula ABF, kwaphulika.Komabe, chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa ogulitsa oyenerera, kupereka kwa ABF

onyamula akusowa ndipo mtengo ukupitilira kukwera.Makampaniwa akuyembekeza kuti vuto lokhala ndi mbale zonyamulira za ABF likhoza kupitilira mpaka 2023. M'nkhaniyi, zomera zinayi zazikulu zonyamula mbale ku Taiwan, Xinxing, Nandian, Jingshuo ndi Zhending KY, zayambitsa mapulani okulitsa ABF mbale chaka chino. ndalama zonse zogulira ndalama zoposa NT $65 biliyoni (pafupifupi RMB 15.046 biliyoni) m'mafakitale akumtunda ndi ku Taiwan.Kuphatikiza apo, Ibiden ndi Shinko waku Japan, Samsung motor and Dade electronics yaku South Korea akulitsanso ndalama zawo mu mbale zonyamula za ABF.

 

Kufunika ndi mtengo wa ABF carrier board ukukwera kwambiri, ndipo kuchepaku kupitilira mpaka 2023

 

Gawo laling'ono la IC limapangidwa pamaziko a board ya HDI (gulu lapamwamba lolumikizana ndi kachulukidwe kakang'ono), lomwe lili ndi mawonekedwe a kachulukidwe kwambiri, kulondola kwambiri, miniaturization ndi kuonda.Monga zinthu wapakatikati kulumikiza Chip ndi bolodi dera mu ndondomeko Chip ma CD, ntchito yaikulu ya ABF chonyamulira bolodi ndi kuchita kachulukidwe apamwamba ndi mkulu-liwiro interconnection kulankhulana ndi Chip, ndiyeno interconnect ndi lalikulu PCB bolodi kudzera mizere zambiri. pa bolodi la IC chonyamulira, lomwe limagwira ntchito yolumikizira, kuti muteteze kukhulupirika kwa dera, kuchepetsa kutayikira, kukonza mzere wa mzere Zimathandizira kuti chip chizisungunuke bwino kuti chiteteze chip, komanso kuphatikizira kungokhala chete komanso kuchitapo kanthu. zipangizo kukwaniritsa ntchito zina dongosolo.

 

Pakadali pano, pankhani yoyika ma CD apamwamba kwambiri, chonyamulira cha IC chakhala gawo lofunikira pakuyika kwa chip.Deta ikuwonetsa kuti pakali pano, gawo la chonyamulira cha IC pamtengo wonse wazonyamula wafika pafupifupi 40%.

 

Pakati pa zonyamulira za IC, pali makamaka zonyamulira za ABF (Ajinomoto build up film) ndi zonyamulira za BT malinga ndi njira zosiyanasiyana zamaukadaulo monga CLL resin system.

 

Pakati pawo, bolodi yonyamulira ya ABF imagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri pamakompyuta apamwamba kwambiri monga CPU, GPU, FPGA ndi ASIC.Akapangidwa tchipisi, nthawi zambiri amafunikira kupakidwa pa bolodi yonyamulira ya ABF asanasonkhanitsidwe pa bolodi yayikulu ya PCB.Chonyamulira cha ABF chikatha, opanga zazikulu kuphatikiza Intel ndi AMD sangathe kuthawa tsoka lomwe chip sichingatumizidwe.Kufunika kwa chonyamulira cha ABF kumawoneka.

 

Kuyambira theka lachiwiri la chaka chatha, chifukwa cha kukula kwa 5g, cloud AI computing, ma seva ndi misika ina, kufunikira kwa tchipisi tapamwamba kwambiri (HPC) kwakula kwambiri.Kuphatikizidwa ndikukula kwakukula kwa msika wamaofesi / zosangalatsa, magalimoto ndi misika ina, kufunikira kwa tchipisi ta CPU, GPU ndi AI kumbali yakutsogolo kwakula kwambiri, zomwe zakwezanso kufunikira kwa ma board onyamula a ABF.Kuphatikizidwa ndi zotsatira za ngozi yamoto mu fakitale ya Ibiden Qingliu, fakitale yayikulu yonyamula IC, ndi fakitale ya Xinxing Electronic Shanying, onyamula ABF padziko lapansi akusowa kwambiri.

 

Mu February chaka chino, panali nkhani pamsika kuti mbale zonyamulira za ABF zinali kuchepa kwambiri, ndipo nthawi yobweretsera inali yayitali ngati milungu 30.Ndi kuchepa kwa mbale zonyamula za ABF, mtengowo udapitilira kukwera.Deta ikuwonetsa kuti kuyambira kotala lachinayi la chaka chatha, mtengo wa IC carrier board wapitilira kukwera, kuphatikiza BT carrier board up pafupifupi 20%, pomwe ABF carrier board up 30% - 50%.

 

 

Monga mphamvu yonyamulira ABF makamaka m'manja mwa opanga ochepa ku Taiwan, Japan ndi South Korea, kukulitsa kupanga kwawo kunali kochepa m'mbuyomu, zomwe zimapangitsanso kuti zikhale zovuta kuchepetsa kuchepa kwa chonyamulira cha ABF munthawi yochepa. nthawi.

 

Choncho, ambiri ma CD ndi kuyezetsa opanga anayamba kunena kuti mapeto makasitomala kusintha ndondomeko kupanga zigawo zina kuchokera BGA ndondomeko amafuna ABF chonyamulira mzere QFN ndondomeko, kuti kupewa kuchedwa kutumiza chifukwa kulephera ndandanda mphamvu ya ABF chonyamulira. .

 

Opanga zonyamulira adati pakadali pano, fakitale iliyonse yonyamulira ilibe malo ochulukirapo oti mulumikizane ndi maoda "odumpha pamzere" ndi mtengo wapamwamba wa unit, ndipo chilichonse chimayendetsedwa ndi makasitomala omwe adatsimikizira kale.Tsopano makasitomala ena alankhulanso za kuchuluka ndi 2023,

 

Poyamba, Goldman Sachs lipoti kafukufuku anasonyezanso kuti ngakhale kukodzedwa ABF chonyamulira mphamvu ya IC chonyamulira Nandian mu Kunshan chomera ku China chikuyembekezeka kuyamba kotala yachiwiri ya chaka chino, chifukwa kuwonjezera nthawi yobereka zida zofunika kupanga. Kukula mpaka miyezi 8 ~ 12, mphamvu yonyamula ABF padziko lonse lapansi idakula ndi 10% ~ 15% yokha chaka chino, koma kufunikira kwa msika kukupitilirabe kukhala wamphamvu, ndipo kusiyana kwakukulu komwe kumafunikira kukuyembekezeka kukhala kovuta kuthetsa pofika 2022.

 

M'zaka ziwiri zikubwerazi, ndi kukula kosalekeza kwa kufunikira kwa ma PC, ma seva amtambo ndi tchipisi ta AI, kufunikira kwa onyamula ABF kupitilira kukula.Kuphatikiza apo, kumangidwa kwa network ya 5g padziko lonse lapansi kudzadyanso onyamula ambiri a ABF.

 

Kuonjezera apo, ndi kuchepa kwa lamulo la Moore, opanga chip nawonso anayamba kugwiritsa ntchito kwambiri zipangizo zamakono zopangira mapepala kuti apitirize kulimbikitsa ubwino wachuma wa lamulo la Moore.Mwachitsanzo, ukadaulo wa Chiplet, womwe umapangidwa mwamphamvu m'makampani, umafunikira kukula konyamulira kwa ABF komanso zokolola zochepa.Akuyembekezeka kupititsa patsogolo kufunikira kwa chotengera cha ABF.Malinga ndi kuneneratu kwa Tuopu Industry Research Institute, kuchuluka kwa pamwezi kwa mbale zonyamula za ABF padziko lonse lapansi kudzakula kuchoka pa 185 miliyoni kufika pa 345 miliyoni kuyambira 2019 mpaka 2023, ndikukula kwapachaka kwa 16.9%.

 

Mafakitole akuluakulu odzaza mbale awonjezera kupanga kwawo motsatizanatsatizana

 

Poona kusowa kosalekeza kwa mbale zonyamulira za ABF pakali pano komanso kukula kosalekeza kwa msika m'tsogolomu, opanga mbale zinayi zazikulu za IC ku Taiwan, Xinxing, Nandian, jingshuo ndi Zhending KY, akhazikitsa mapulani okulitsa kupanga chaka chino. ndalama zokwana NT $65 biliyoni (pafupifupi RMB 15.046 biliyoni) zoperekedwa m'mafakitale akumtunda ndi ku Taiwan.Kuphatikiza apo, a Ibiden ndi Shinko aku Japan adamalizanso ntchito zakukulitsa zonyamulira zonyamula katundu zokwana 180 biliyoni ndi 90 biliyoni motsatana.Kampani yaku South Korea ya Samsung yamagetsi ndi Dade idakulitsanso ndalama zawo.

 

Mwa anayi Taiwan ndalama IC chonyamulira zomera, lalikulu likulu ndalama chaka chino anali Xinxing, chomera kutsogolera, amene anafika NT $36.221 biliyoni (za RMB 8.884 biliyoni), mlandu oposa 50% ya ndalama okwana zomera zinayi, ndi kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa 157% poyerekeza ndi NT $ 14.087 biliyoni chaka chatha.Xinxing adakweza ndalama zake zazikulu kanayi chaka chino, ndikuwonetsa momwe msika ulibe.Kuphatikiza apo, Xinxing wasaina mapangano azaka zitatu ndi makasitomala ena kuti apewe chiopsezo chakusintha kwa msika.

 

Nandian akufuna kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama zosachepera NT $ 8 biliyoni (pafupifupi RMB 1.852 biliyoni) pamalikulu chaka chino, ndikuwonjezeka kwapachaka kuposa 9%.Panthawi imodzimodziyo, idzachitanso NT $ 8 biliyoni ntchito yogulitsa ndalama m'zaka ziwiri zikubwerazi kuti ikulitse mzere wa ABF board loading wa Taiwan Shulin plant.Akuyembekezeka kutsegulira kukwera kwatsopano kwa board kuyambira kumapeto kwa 2022 mpaka 2023.

 

Chifukwa cha thandizo lamphamvu la gulu la kholo la Heshuo gulu, Jingshuo adakulitsa mphamvu zopanga za ABF chonyamulira.Chaka chino likulu ndalama, kuphatikizapo kugula nthaka ndi kukulitsa kupanga, akuti upambana NT $10 biliyoni, kuphatikizapo NT $4.485 biliyoni mu kugula malo ndi nyumba Myrica rubra.Kuphatikizidwa ndi ndalama zoyambirira zogulira zida ndi ndondomeko yochepetsera kuwonjezereka kwa chonyamulira cha ABF, ndalama zonse zomwe zikugwiritsidwa ntchito zikuyembekezeka kuwonjezeka ndi 244% poyerekeza ndi chaka chatha, ndi chomera chachiwiri chonyamulira ku Taiwan chomwe ndalama zake zazikulu zimachokera. yadutsa NT $10 biliyoni.

 

Pansi pa njira yogula kamodzi m'zaka zaposachedwa, gulu la Zhending silinangopanga phindu kuchokera ku bizinesi yonyamulira ya BT yomwe ilipo ndipo ikupitiriza kuwirikiza kawiri mphamvu zake zopanga, komanso mkati mwake inamaliza ndondomeko ya zaka zisanu ya masanjidwe onyamulira ndikuyamba kuyenda. ku chotengera cha ABF.

 

Ngakhale kukulitsa kwakukulu kwa Taiwan kwa onyamula ABF, Japan ndi South Korea mapulani akukulitsa mphamvu zonyamula anthu akuchulukiranso posachedwa.

 

Ibiden, chonyamulira mbale zazikulu ku Japan, yamaliza ndondomeko yokulitsa zonyamulira mbale za yen biliyoni 180 (pafupifupi yuan biliyoni 10.606), ndicholinga chofuna kupanga mtengo wopitilira yen 250 biliyoni mu 2022, wofanana ndi US $2.13 biliyoni.Shinko, wopanga zina zonyamula katundu waku Japan komanso wofunika kwambiri ku Intel, wamalizanso dongosolo lakukulitsa ma yen biliyoni 90 (pafupifupi yuan 5.303 biliyoni).Zikuyembekezeka kuti mphamvu zonyamulira zidzakwera ndi 40% mu 2022 ndipo ndalamazo zifika pafupifupi US $ 1.31 biliyoni.

 

Kuphatikiza apo, Samsung motor yaku South Korea yawonjezera kuchuluka kwa ndalama zonyamula mbale kupitilira 70% chaka chatha ndikupitilizabe kugulitsa.Dade electronics, chomera china chaku South Korea chodzaza mbale, chasinthanso chomera chake cha HDI kukhala chonyamula mbale za ABF, ndi cholinga chokweza ndalama zosachepera US $ 130 miliyoni mu 2022.


Nthawi yotumiza: Aug-26-2021